Evolution of Engines for Transportation
Since the two gentlemen from Germany, Mr.Otto and Mr.Diesel have invented gasoline and diesel ICE (internal combustion engine) in late 1980s, the engines have improved themselves by adapting multi-steps evolutionary technologies, but the basic principle of the engines has not been changed. With the help of a couple of oil shock and the fear of fossil fuel shortage, it is also true that several alternative power plant of vehicle have been seriously considered, such as fuel cell vehicle and hybrid vehicle.
In the late 90s, German OEMs like BMW and VW have been focused on fuel cell vehicle technology, on the other hand the Japanese OEM Toyota, Honda have focused much more on the hybrid vehicle technology. Recently the German OEM have shifted their focus from fuel-cell to hybrid vehicle, means the forecasting of Japanese OEM has won the market trend.
Based on the market development through the former decade, we can summarize the trend in two ways. The first one is that it is not easy to say good-bye to internal combustion engine which take positions very deep in our daily life, the second is that the speed of spread of hybrid vehicles into the other sectors would not be easy in the short coming future.
In my personal opinion, ICE will take much longer life cycle than expected with the help of technical improvement which support fuel economy and environmental friendly operation, because it is not easy to change the industrial structure which supports automotive industry and the social infrastructure for other type of transportation cannot be established in a day.
If we compare the internal combustion engine today with those of 50 years ago, the current engine has improved tremendously, in view point of power and torque generation, exhaust emission reduction as well as low fuel consumption. The technology of GDI (Gasoline Direct Injection) with the support of VVL & VVT (Variable Valve Lift, Variable Valve Timing), CDA (Cylinder De-Activation), EMS (Energy Management System) is kind of engine with cutting-edge technology of gasoline sector. In diesel sector, by increasing fuel injection pressure up to 2600 bar, we have improved a lot fuel efficiency as well as exhaust emission.
How about electrical vehicle which removes internal combustion engine completely ? When it comes to our daily life ? The key to make correct answer to this question is how fast the battery technology will be developed. Considering the price level (1000 Dollars per KWh) and energy density (200Wh per Kg) of the battery for electrical vehicles, it is very hard to expect replacement of internal combustion engine vehicle by electrical vehicle. The current culture of transportation with industry structure will be continued at least decades as it is.